Economists of our bank forecast that the process of rebuilding economic activity in European economies will be long-lasting, among others considering the downtime in manufacturing caused by the coronavirus epidemic – GDP growth in the eurozone in 2020 will still be low, most likely it will not exceed 1.0% y/y. In the case of the US a slowdown is expected from 2.3% to 1.5% y/y – the US economy is doing much better than the euro bloc countries.
The year 2020 will also bring key global political events – one of them will be the US presidential election in November. Donald Trump’s opponent may be a representative of the left wing of the Democrats party. Such a choice will mean the confrontation of two opposing directions of US economic and international policy. This year, the next stage of trade negotiations between the US and China, and potentially also the European Union, will probably take place.